🇹🇷 ECAA Backlog Clearance Simulator

Annex B (FOI Feb 28 2026) · VSI_01a Received Applications · WIP Q1 2026 · Crowdsourced decisions (Jun 13–24 2026)

● ● Queue clearing from June 2026

20.2/day

Calibrated rate at Jun 24

Settings — all values recalculate live

Dependants per main 1 :

2.20

Family size

45%

Share that are main

Actual data:
2025 ≈ 1.23 · 2024 ≈ 1.16 · 2023 ≈ 0.93

Scenario Dec/day Growth %/mo

Monthly Cohort Sizes in Queue

Month	ILR applications	LTR applications	Total applicants	Est. dependants

ILR: Annex B undecided per month. March 2026 = WIP(5,612) − Annex B(4,466) = 1,146. LTR: VSI_01a quarterly ÷ 3; Sep 2025 −11% for pre-freeze decisions. Sep 2025 = remaining after 13/22 working days cleared by June 24. Apr–May estimated from Q1 2026 pace. Main applicants for scheduling = Total ÷ (1 + dep ratio) — shown in the clearance schedule below.

Clearance Timeline — All Scenarios

Each cohort row shows one bar per scenario (FIFO). Bar start = previous cohort clears. Bar end = last decision in cohort. Each scenario compounds its own growth independently.

Clearance Schedule — Last Decision Date by Scenario

Date = when the last case from that monthly cohort is decided. (X.X/day) = effective rate with compounded growth. Individual cases clear progressively across the cohort window.

Methodology & Data Sources

Queue position June 24: Crowdsourced data (200+ rows, Jun 13–24 2026) shows Sep 15–17, 2025 applications being decided. 13/22 Sep working days cleared → 344 decisions ÷ 17 wd = 20.2/day calibrated rate.

ILR data: Annex B (FOI, 28 Feb 2026) — undecided applications per month. March 2026 = WIP(5,612) − Annex B undecided(4,466) = 1,146 total.

LTR data: VSI_01a quarterly received ÷ 3 monthly. Sep 2025 adjusted for ~11% pre-freeze decisions. Q3 2025 = 2,210 · Q4 = 1,109 · Q1 2026 = 560.

Growth model: Each scenario has its own monthly compounding rate. D_month = D_start × (1 + g%)^m. m=0 = Jun 24 (4 wd). m=1 = July 2026. 21 working days/month. DPWD = 365÷252 = 1.448.

Based on public official data. Not legal advice. Fully self-contained — save as .html, works offline. Share freely.