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ECAA Backlog Simulator

Turkey · Settlement & extension queue

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Assumptions ⌄

Dependants per applicant

1 :

45% main applicants · 2.20 avg family size

Historical avg: 2025 · 1.23 2024 · 1.16

Decision rates (main applicants/day)

Timeline

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Each row = one application month. Bars process in arrival order. Tap a bar for exact dates.

When each month clears

Date = last case in that cohort decided. Earlier applicants finish sooner.

Queue breakdown

Month	ILR	LTR	Total	Dependants	Main applicants

ILR from FOI Annex B (undecided per month, Feb 2026). LTR from quarterly VSI_01a ÷ 3. Main applicants = total ÷ (1 + dep ratio).

Sources & methodology

Show methodology

Calibration (26 Jun 2026): Community tracker (220+ rows) shows 18 Sep 2025 applications being decided on day 11 of clearing → ~35 main applicants/day actualised rate. Queue position extrapolated forward from this anchor at 1.64 calendar days per working day.

Data: ILR — FOI Annex B undecided per month (28 Feb 2026); March = WIP (5,612) − Annex B (4,466). LTR — VSI_01a quarterly totals ÷ 3; Sep 2025 −11% for pre-freeze decisions. Q3 2025 = 2,210 · Q4 = 1,109 · Q1 2026 = 560.

Based on public official data. Not legal advice. Fully self-contained — save as .html, works offline.