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🇹🇷 ECAA Backlog Clearance Simulator

Official UK Home Office FOI data 20.2 decisions/daycalibrated · Jun 2026

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Dependant ratio & scenario decision rates ⌄

Dependants per main applicant

1 :

2.20 average family size · 45% are main applicants

Actual data: 2025 ≈ 1.23 · 2024 ≈ 1.16 · 2023 ≈ 0.93

Decision rate scenarios

Clearance timeline

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Each row is one cohort. Each bar is one scenario, processed in arrival order (first in, first out). Bar start = previous cohort fully cleared. Bar end = last decision in cohort. Tap or hover a bar for exact dates.

Clearance schedule — last decision date

Date shown = when the last case from that cohort is decided. Cases clear progressively — earlier applicants in a cohort are decided before that date.

Monthly cohort sizes in the queue

Month	ILR	LTR	Total	Estimated dependants	Estimated main applicants

ILR: Annex B undecided per month. March 2026 = Work in Progress (5,612) − Annex B (4,466) = 1,146. LTR: VSI_01a quarterly ÷ 3; Sep 2025 −11% for pre-freeze decisions. Sep 2025 = remaining after 13/22 working days cleared by June 24. Apr–May estimated from Q1 2026 pace. Main applicants = Total ÷ (1 + dependant ratio).

Methodology & data sources

Show methodology

Queue position June 24: Crowdsourced data (200+ rows, Jun 13–24 2026) shows Sep 15–17, 2025 applications being decided. 13/22 Sep working days cleared → 344 decisions ÷ 17 working days = 20.2 decisions/day calibrated rate.

ILR data: Annex B (FOI, 28 Feb 2026) — undecided applications per month. March 2026 = Work in Progress (5,612) − Annex B undecided (4,466) = 1,146 total.

LTR data: VSI_01a quarterly received ÷ 3 monthly. Sep 2025 adjusted for ~11% pre-freeze decisions. Q3 2025 = 2,210 · Q4 = 1,109 · Q1 2026 = 560.

Growth model: D_month = D_start × (1+g%)^m. m=0 = Jun 24 (4 working days remaining). m=1 = July 2026. 21 working days/month. Days per working day (DPWD) = 365÷252 = 1.448.

Based on public official data. Not legal advice. Fully self-contained — save as .html, works offline.